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Title: Anti-Predictions for Healthcare in 2025: What Won’t Change and a Case for Optimism
In the realm of healthcare, it’s difficult to predict significant change in the near term. As Seth Joseph astutely notes, “relatively little is likely to change writ large in 2025.” However, this doesn’t mean that progress won’t occur or that we shouldn’t be optimistic about the future.
First and foremost, there are some areas where continuity is expected. For instance, it’s unlikely that dominant healthcare firms will see a significant shift in their market share or behavior in the near term. The DOJ’s ongoing investigation into UnitedHealth Group, as well as the FTC’s scrutiny of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), suggest that antitrust enforcement may continue to focus on single-firm conduct among dominant players.
Regarding health technology, interoperability issues will likely persist, hindering innovation and progress in healthcare. In this context, even top antitrust enforcers like FTC Chairperson Lina Khan and Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter acknowledge the challenges created by large technology incumbents, highlighting their awareness of the issue and potential for regulatory action.
Despite these ongoing concerns, some experts believe that our pessimism might be unwarranted. Bill Gates’ famous quote “Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years” serves as a reminder that progress may not always be immediate but can ultimately occur.
In the healthcare space, Eleos Healthcare’s CEO Alon Joffee shares his perspective: “We finally have the technological tools to best the cost curve. It will still take time and be an uphill battle, but at least we have the tools to fight it.” Similarly, Insight Partners’ Barclay emphasizes taking a long-term view of progress, stating that “there are many negatives in our current moment, but in the long run, they are only a moment in time.”
In a surprising yet relevant observation, Sloane PR’s Co-CEO Darren Brandt advises patience and recognition of incremental progress. He cautions that healthcare improvement may feel like an uphill battle, but it’s essential to acknowledge small victories.
While there is no guarantee that the next 12 months will see significant breakthroughs, maintaining a hopeful perspective can lead to meaningful advancements in healthcare.
Source: www.forbes.com
