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The Fallout of Viral Snow Forecast Posts on Social Media
As a meteorologist and Director of the University of Georgia’s School of Environmental Sustainability, I’m writing to address the serious implications of “snow porn” – viral snow forecast posts on social media. It may seem harmless, but the consequences can be devastating.
Firstly, these fantasy forecasts undermine credibility in weather forecasting as a whole. When these predictions fail to materialize, people begin to question the accuracy and reliability of weather forecasts altogether. As experts in this field, we know that forecasts are correct most of the time, but it’s crucial for the public to understand the limitations of weather model information.
Furthermore, “snow porn” clouds the boundary of expertise between meteorologists and non-experts. It’s essential to recognize that meteorologists have spent years studying atmospheric sciences, and their understanding of weather models and their limitations is vastly different from that of a layperson. We are aware of fantasy snowstorms and hurricanes that dissipate in subsequent model runs or when things are ten or more days out. A 2019 study at Pennsylvania State University revealed the barriers in numerical model weather predictability.
Moreover, people struggle to comprehend how forecasts are made due to their lack of understanding of the atmospheric physics, calculus, and complex computational processing involved. This ignorance can lead to a false sense of security when it comes to weather forecasting accuracy.
One major issue is confirmation bias. Once a bad forecast goes viral on social media, people tend to resist credible explanations and cling to their desired outcome. We saw this during Hurricane Helene, where colleagues were threatened or attacked for explaining that we cannot control hurricanes.
I encourage everyone to stop sharing information without proper context and process the data carefully before hitting the “share” button. Please take inventory of your sources and remember that trust in weather forecasting is crucial for our community’s well-being.
Lastly, there are actual changes on the horizon. Conditions are trending towards a colder pattern by the middle of January, which could potentially lead to snowfall in the South. However, it’s too early to confirm anything based on a model seen in late December.
Let’s work together to promote trust and accuracy in our conversations about weather forecasting!
Source: www.forbes.com
