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The Year Ahead: Promise For Quantum Growth
As the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology comes to a close, it’s clear that 2025 holds immense promise for quantum growth and innovation. Despite AI seemingly stealing the spotlight in recent years, I firmly believe that the next 12 months will be marked by significant advancements in the quantum space.
Firstly, I expect to see a shift in focus towards solving some of the pressing problems plaguing quantum computing. Gone are the days when qubit count was the primary concern; instead, we’ll witness a concentration on error correction and fault-tolerant quantum computers. Notably, AI has already shown potential in error correction, suggesting that the two technologies will coexist harmoniously in 2025.
Moreover, industry leaders must recalibrate their expectations regarding the availability of cryptographically relevant quantum computers, otherwise known as CRQCs or “fault-tolerant” computers capable of breaking standard public-key encryption. Initial hopes had pinned 2025 as the year we’d see such a breakthrough, but now predictions point to 2030 for this milestone. This reprieve provides security professionals with additional time to develop post-quantum security strategies and protect their most critical data assets.
The release of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) will undoubtedly spur an increase in quantum-safe encryption development worldwide. These mathematical solutions aim to replace current public-key encryption methods, marking a crucial step towards quantum readiness.
However, I foresee another trend emerging in 2025: increased support for quantum-key distribution (QKD) technologies. As PQC algorithms become more accessible, QKD will gain traction, particularly in North America. In my opinion, this is the most promising area of development for quantum-proof security, providing a safeguard against data-harvesting attacks years before quantum computers can break encryption.
On the business side, I anticipate 2025 to be an exciting year for quantum startups. Notably, IonQ set the precedent for M&A opportunities in the sector by going public in 2021 and acquiring Qubitekk in late 2024 as part of its strategy to develop a CRQC computer in data centers. In light of this, I predict that IonQ will continue its M&A program, followed by other companies in the space. Expect a surge in acquisitions, mergers, and joint ventures across geographies, with potential opportunities arising in Europe.
In conclusion, while 2025 may not be the year we see the widespread adoption of CRQCs, it’s clear that quantum technology will continue to evolve at an unprecedented pace. As we enter this new era, companies must begin positioning themselves for a competitive go-to-market strategy as the quantum landscape shifts.
Source: www.forbes.com
