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NASA Upgrades, Then Lowers Odds Of Asteroid Hitting Earth — Here’s Why
In a surprising turn of events, NASA has not only upgraded the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4, but also subsequently lowered it. The sudden change in odds comes as astronomers continue to gather more data on the potential threat.
The news initially took a concerning turn when NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies raised the risk of impact to a staggering 3.1%, the highest ever recorded for an object of this size. However, after further observations and tracking, the agency has since lowered the probability to a still significant, but less alarming 1.5%.
Asteroid 2024 YR4, measuring approximately 130 to 300 feet in diameter, was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (IAWN) in Chile. Its potential impact date is projected for December 22, 2032, with a “risk corridor” covering a vast area spanning the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
The sudden shift in probability comes as astronomers scramble to refine the asteroid’s trajectory. Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, explained that this change is due to the scientific method of tracking an object in orbit. “It might seem confusing or worrying, but it is simply the nature of this particular science,” he emphasized.
“It can take months or even years for astronomers to track the asteroid’s complete orbit and resolve the uncertainty,” Binzel added, referencing the analogy of hurricane tracking, where initial uncertainty gives way to a clearer picture as more data becomes available.
While the threat has not been entirely eliminated, it is reassuring to know that NASA will continue to monitor the situation closely. The agency stressed that astronomers do not wish to keep any secrets, and the public can simply look up to track the development.
In fact, astronomers are already seeing a reduction in uncertainty as more data becomes available. As Binzel noted, “Eventually, we expect the probability to fall to zero and reach Torino Scale 0 (all clear!).”
For now, the situation remains fluid, but it is heartening to know that scientists are working diligently to provide accurate information and alleviate any concerns.
It’s also worth noting that NASA has reported a separate 0.8% impact probability, or 1-in-125 chance, that the asteroid could hit the moon instead of Earth.
Source: http://www.forbes.com
