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Bitcoin: Why THESE factors signal a potential end of BTC’s bull market
Bitcoin has been in the midst of extreme volatility over the past few months, and some analysts are speculating about the possibility of a bull market coming to an end. According to CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci, there are four key on-chain metrics that could potentially indicate this outcome.
The first indicator cited is the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which currently remains bearish. As long as it stays below the SMA90, market corrections are likely to persist. In fact, a similar pattern was seen in December 2023 and February 2024 when IFP stayed under SMA90.
Another signal mentioned is the Bitcoin CQ Bull & Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which is also displaying bearish patterns. According to Kesmeci, this metric has previously displayed weak bearish patterns during market downturns, only to later rebound. While not definitive proof of a top, these patterns do suggest that the market could be approaching such a point.
The third metric highlighted by CryptoQuant is the Bitcoin Whale Exchange Ratio, which has been in decline. This could indicate that large entities are holding onto their positions and expect prices to continue rising, rather than transferring BTC to exchanges for sale.
Lastly, the analysis looked at Bitcoin’s exchange netflow data. A five-day run of negative netflow suggests that buyers have taken control of the market, with a surge in accumulating addresses. If buyers feel the market is nearing its top, they may behave differently.
While these indicators collectively suggest significant turbulence in the short to mid-term for Bitcoin, none of them indicate an overheated market or cycle-top scenario. This trend bears similarities to the August 2024 carry trade crisis, where macroeconomic conditions led to a decline in Bitcoin prices. However, once those pressures eased, the cryptocurrency rebounded.
In contrast, AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests that the market is not yet at its peak and key players remain bullish. According to data, Bitcoin whales have been holding onto their positions, as evidenced by a declining Whale Exchange Ratio. This could indicate optimism from large entities regarding future price growth.
Additionally, it appears that buyers are accumulating addresses, resulting in a negative exchange netflow over the past five days. If market participants believe the market is not yet at its peak, they would behave differently and this metric should be taken with caution.
Furthermore, Bitcoin’s exchange reserves have hit an annual low due to reduced inflows into exchanges. This decline suggests fewer transfers of BTC onto exchanges, which could potentially lead to a recovery in prices if market conditions improve.
In conclusion, while some metrics do hint at the possibility of a bull run coming to an end, it is too early to call it. Both whales and retail investors remain optimistic about the cryptocurrency’s prospects for growth. If this sentiment persists, Bitcoin could potentially reclaim the $90k level. However, if a correction does occur, prices may fall as low as $85,222.
It is essential to keep in mind that these are only forecasts and should not be taken as investment advice.
Source: https://ambcrypto.com/bitcoin-why-these-factors-signal-a-potential-end-to-btcs-bull-market/
