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Bitcoin’s Q3 Outlook Uncertain – Is Another Liquidation Event Coming?
By Ritika Gupta
Journalist at AMBCrypto
June 28, 2025
As the second quarter comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market is abuzz with uncertainty regarding Bitcoin’s (BTC) prospects in the upcoming third quarter. The recent rally has been met with skepticism by many, given the unprecedented leverage and speculative capital that continues to drive the asset’s price discovery.
Following the sharp 30% quarterly return, which marks a stark contrast to Q1’s net loss of 11.82%, there are valid concerns regarding whether this newfound momentum can be sustained in the long term. While Bitcoin’s recent rally may have surprised many, the underlying dynamics that fueled it are far from reassuring.
One crucial aspect to consider is the disparity between spot and futures markets. As seen in the Glassnode data, spot volume remained remarkably muted at $7.7 billion during the rally, significantly below the peaks observed in prior bull cycles. Conversely, Futures volume kept climbing, suggesting a rally driven not by broad retail participation but rather by speculative capital rotating through derivatives markets.
This structural imbalance reinforces AMBCrypto’s thesis that leverage continues to drive Bitcoin’s price discovery this cycle, outpacing sustained retail demand. With Q3 historically underperforming in the past three years, there is growing concern regarding the asset’s ability to break through previous highs without a significant shift in the market dynamics.
The recent data from CryptoQuant highlights a striking trend – every dip in the Bitcoin market triggers a spike in long liquidations. This recurring pattern raises alarm bells about the possibility of another liquidation event in the near future, driven by excessive leverage and speculative capital.
This uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency’s Q3 outlook underscores the pressing need for investors to re-examine their risk tolerance and adjust their positions accordingly.
Source: ambcrypto.com
