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This article discusses the concept of an intelligence explosion in the context of Artificial Intelligence (AI) development and its potential implications for reaching Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The author presents a hypothetical timeline from 2025 to 2040, assuming that an intelligence explosion occurs in 2038 or 2039.
The article defines an intelligence explosion as a rapid chain reaction where intelligence fuels more intelligence, potentially leading to the creation of AGI. This concept is attributed to a research paper published by John Good Irving in 1965.
However, controversies surrounding this idea are highlighted, including:
1. Lack of credible evidence supporting the existence of such an event.
2. Debate about the pace of the explosion, with some predicting instant or near-instant growth and others suggesting it could take years, decades, or even centuries to occur.
The author also raises concerns about how to start and stop an intelligence explosion, as well as potential risks associated with reaching ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence) before AGI is achieved.
Source: www.forbes.com
