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Stablecoin Market to Hit $500B, Not $2T: J.P. Morgan Counters Overly Bullish Projections
J.P. Morgan has released a new report that significantly scales back previous projections of the stablecoin market’s growth potential. According to the financial institution, the stablecoin market is unlikely to reach $2 trillion by 2028 as previously forecasted, and instead, it will likely cap out at $500 billion.
The bank’s revised forecast is a direct response to overly bullish predictions made by other financial institutions. J.P. Morgan has taken a more conservative approach, citing limited adoption outside of crypto trading and slow regulatory progress as major constraints hindering the market’s growth.
A key factor in this downward revision is the concentration of stablecoin usage within digital asset markets, decentralized finance (DeFi), and collateral use cases. These applications account for the majority of current demand, while payment use remains a mere 6% of total activity at just $15 billion.
Despite growing interest from fintech firms and banks, J.P. Morgan’s analysts believe that these efforts have not yet shifted the fundamental dynamics of the market. The bank emphasizes that its projections are grounded in current trends and data, rather than speculative or overly optimistic views.
The report highlights the significant regulatory challenges that continue to stifle the stablecoin industry’s growth. Fragmented global regulations have created an uncertain environment, hindering global expansion and widespread adoption. Many countries are instead focusing on central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or enhancing existing payment systems. This lack of clarity in regulation has led J.P. Morgan to temper its previous expectations.
While some experts had anticipated the stablecoin market reaching $2 trillion by 2028, J.P. Morgan’s forecast suggests that a more measured approach is necessary. As the report concludes, real-world financial integration remains limited, and growth will likely be driven by speculative demand and crypto-native applications, rather than broad-based mainstream adoption.
It seems clear that J.P. Morgan has taken a more conservative stance on stablecoin market potential, aligning with current trends and data, while other institutions have been overly optimistic in their projections.
Source: blockonomi.com
