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XRP Projected Price if It Captures 20% of Global E-Commerce Transactions
As the global e-commerce payments market is poised for significant growth through 2029, some experts believe that Ripple’s XRP could see substantial upside potential. If XRP were to capture a mere 20% of this projected $11.4 trillion annual transaction volume, it could result in a remarkable valuation increase.
Evaluating XRP’s Role in E-Commerce Growth
The global e-commerce payments market was valued at approximately $7 trillion in 2024 and is expected to continue growing through the decade. Factors such as the expansion of mobile-first purchasing, increased adoption of digital wallets, and demand for faster, more efficient payment options are driving this growth.
While traditional methods like credit and debit cards remain widely used, there is a clear shift towards more modern solutions. Digital assets, including XRP, have been recognized as strong contenders in this evolving landscape. In August 2024, Web3 Enabler, a Salesforce Web3 partner, highlighted XRP’s potential in cross-border and domestic e-commerce transactions.
To comprehend the potential price impact if XRP were to power a portion of global e-commerce activity, I analyzed a hypothetical scenario where XRP handles 20% of the projected 2029 transaction volume, which would amount to approximately $2.28 trillion annually.
XRP Valuation Based on Utility Model
To estimate the corresponding XRP valuation, two analytical methods were considered. The first model assesses XRP based solely on its utility, considering it as a core transaction layer within the payments ecosystem, similar to how liquidity assets are used by financial institutions. Using the Velocity of Money formula and assuming each XRP token circulates four times per year, the model indicates a required market capitalization of $570 billion to facilitate $2.28 trillion in annual transactions.
With an assumed circulating supply of 60 billion tokens, this places XRP at approximately $9.50. If XRP token velocity is lower, for example if each token is used only twice annually, more value must be assigned to each unit to support the same transaction volume. Under these circumstances, the model projects a price of $19.00 per XRP.
Speculative Value Projection Based on Market Sentiment
The second approach considers the impact of market speculation where investor enthusiasm and forward-looking expectations drive valuation before actual utility is fully realized. This scenario aligns with how assets like Bitcoin gained early value largely on anticipated use rather than immediate adoption.
By applying a 15x speculative multiplier to the $570 billion utility-based market capitalization, this method arrives at a projected market capitalization of approximately $8.55 trillion.
Dividing this figure by the same 60 billion circulating XRP tokens yields a theoretical price of $142.50 per token.
Source: timestabloid.com
