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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle ‘Dead’? Bitwise Predicts 2026 Surge Instead of 2025 Peak
In a recent video posted on July 25, Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, has stated that 2026 will likely be a strong year for Bitcoin. According to Hougan, the widely accepted four-year cycle theory is no longer applicable. This prediction contradicts the commonly held expectation of a market peak in 2025.
Hougan’s reasoning behind this forecast centers around the diminishing impact of the halving event on Bitcoin’s price action. Since the last halving took place in April 2024, cutting the mining reward to 3.125 BTC, the four-year cycle theory suggests that the market should reach its peak around October 2025. However, Hougan believes this expectation has lost significance due to the diminishing size of the reward relative to total Bitcoin supply.
Furthermore, Hougan emphasizes the shift in macroeconomic conditions as a factor driving his forecast. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s request for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to reduce interest rates could have a positive impact on cryptocurrency markets like Bitcoin. This potential increase in liquidity and a growing institutional presence within the crypto asset space are considered crucial aspects of Hougan’s prediction.
The Bitwise executive also discussed the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies as an area worth keeping an eye on, noting that these entities’ actions could cause significant volatility in the market.
Source: coinchapter.com
