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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle ‘Dead’? Bitwise Predicts 2026 Surge Instead of 2025 Peak
Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, has suggested that the widely accepted four-year cycle theory for Bitcoin is no longer relevant. According to his statements on July 25, he believes that the upcoming halving will not lead to a significant peak in October 2025 as some analysts have predicted.
Instead, Hougan expects Bitcoin’s price to surge significantly in 2026. He based this forecast on the diminishing impact of the halving event on the cryptocurrency market. As the mining reward has decreased over time and is now relatively smaller compared to the total supply of Bitcoin, its effect has decreased proportionally. This shift would negate any significant price increase that may have been expected from past cycles.
In addition to his 2026 prediction, Hougan emphasized the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the market’s behavior. He pointed out that previous interest rate adjustments, which could potentially lead to a stronger crypto sector. The recent trend towards institutional adoption has led to a change in investor profiles and patterns of long-term whale behavior.
Hougan is cautious about the potential for significant short-term volatility, stating that his prediction of the 2025 peak not occurring may still result in unpredictable market movements.
Source: coinchapter.com
