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Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead? Analysts Warn of Major Shift
Experts in the cryptocurrency space are engaged in a heated debate regarding whether the classic four-year halving cycle is no longer relevant or has simply evolved into something more complex. The recent discussion sparked by the likes of Pierre Rochard, Matt Hougan, and Jason Williams suggests that this long-standing pattern may be losing its influence.
According to Rochard, the 4-year cycle is most likely over due to the significant shift in trading dynamics. He highlights that since 95% of all Bitcoin has been mined, halvings have ceased to impact the market significantly. It appears that institutional forces, macroeconomic conditions, and treasury company holdings are now dictating price movements.
This perspective is supported by Bitwise CIO Hougan, who believes the influence of the halving on the market is diminishing. He cites lower interest rates, improving regulatory clarity, and accelerating institutional adoption as factors weakening the 4-year cycle’s significance. In contrast to his peers, Hougan expects a steady period of growth in 2026 rather than extreme boom-and-bust patterns.
On the other hand, Crypto₿IRB challenges this view by arguing that the rise of ETFs has strengthened the cycle by integrating Bitcoin into the traditional finance world, which operates on multi-year trends. According to him, these seasonal tendencies will continue to have an impact on price movements, albeit in a modified form.
YouTuber Benjamin Cowen also weighed in on the debate, sharing his observations about historical data. He noticed that post-halving patterns are still present and may be reappearing, suggesting that while the old pattern is changing, it has not entirely disappeared.
Source: coinpedia.org
