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Is the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Dead? Analysts Warn of Major Shift
The cryptocurrency market has been abuzz with discussions about the viability of the traditional 4-year halving cycle, which many believe is dead. In a recent tweetstorm, renowned Bitcoin expert Pierre Rochard claimed that the classic 4-year halving cycles have lost their influence due to macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand now playing a significant role.
Rochard emphasized that the halving’s effect on the market has become insignificant since most of the Bitcoin supply (95%) is already mined. He further highlighted the growing impact of treasury holdings, ETFs, and Wall Street investments in shaping the cryptocurrency’s price movements.
In contrast, some crypto analysts remain skeptical about the demise of this cycle. Crypto expert Benjamin Cowen noticed a familiar post-halving pattern on Bitcoin’s chart, which suggests that while the mechanics of the cycle may be changing, its seasonal tendencies still persist. If historical patterns continue to unfold as predicted, it would imply that even if the classic halving cycle is no longer dominant, it has not completely disappeared either.
Moreover, some proponents argue that the rise of ETFs can actually strengthen the cycle by aligning crypto with traditional finance trends, which often follow multi-year patterns.
Despite differing views on this topic, there’s a growing consensus among experts that Bitcoin’s market dynamics have undergone significant changes. The cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly influenced by factors beyond its control, such as macroeconomic conditions and institutional demand.
For long-term investors seeking to maximize their returns in the digital currency space, it may be crucial to reassess their investment strategies, focusing on key fundamentals like ETF inflows, regulatory developments, and broader economic trends rather than relying solely on the outdated 4-year cycle.
Source: coinpedia.org
