Uncertainty Over Trump’s Policy Intentions: Bitcoin Reserve Speculation Plummets on Polymarket
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Bitcoin Reserve Speculation Plummets on Polymarket Amid Uncertainty Over Trump’s Policy Intentions
A new prediction market chart from Polymarket paints a volatile picture for Bitcoin enthusiasts banking on former President Donald Trump to establish a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days of office in 2025. The chart shows market confidence dropping sharply, with the “Yes” side currently standing at a meager 27% probability—down by a dramatic 32% in recent days.
The Polymarket data, which aggregates predictions on whether Trump will create a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, illustrates a tumultuous sentiment. Initial optimism in early November saw the market hovering near 50%, driven by speculation and high-profile endorsements of crypto policies. However, the sustained dip below 30% signals skepticism, possibly fueled by the former president’s mixed track record on cryptocurrency.
Despite rising adoption of Bitcoin globally, Trump has historically been ambivalent about digital currencies. During his presidency, he labeled Bitcoin as a “scam” and favored a strong dollar over decentralized alternatives. However, the crypto industry speculated a pivot in his stance when several GOP figures, including pro-Bitcoin advocates, gained influence within the party.
Adding to the intrigue is the $1.5 million in total betting volume—a testament to how polarizing and high-stakes this prediction has become. The fluctuating line on the chart suggests that traders are navigating a minefield of political signals, macroeconomic trends, and the potential for regulatory overreach.
Crypto markets react
The Polymarket trend aligns with recent bearish movements in Bitcoin prices, suggesting that speculators are hedging their bets against the possibility of major federal adoption under Trump’s leadership.
Source: bravenewcoin.com
