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Title: The Fallout Of Viral Snow Forecast Posts On Social Media
The world has gone wild for “snow porn” – sensationalized and often inaccurate weather forecasts that spread like wildfire across social media platforms. As a meteorologist, I’ve seen firsthand the devastating impact these viral posts have on our credibility and the public’s understanding of the complex science behind weather forecasting.
First and foremost, it creates a false narrative about the accuracy of weather forecasts. When these fantastical predictions fail to materialize, it reinforces the notion that we’re always wrong. In reality, as I’ve stressed before, forecasts are right most of the time. However, people tend to focus on the rare misprediction while ignoring the countless times we get it right.
Furthermore, “snow porn” clouds the boundary of expertise between meteorologists and their audience. We understand the limitations and biases within weather model information, but many people do not. They assume that a 5-day forecast is as reliable as a precise GPS coordinate – and when those forecasts don’t verify, they become disenchanted with the entire forecasting process.
Confirmation bias also plays a significant role in perpetuating this issue. When bad weather predictions are shared on social media, it creates an echo chamber effect where people tend to cling to their preferred outcome rather than accepting the reality of uncertainty. We’ve seen this during extreme weather events when colleagues were threatened or attacked for explaining that we can’t control hurricanes.
I urge everyone to exercise caution before sharing and consuming information on social media. Take inventory of the source, process the information carefully, and remember that one weather model does not make a forecast. Instead, meteorologists rely on multiple models, ensemble forecasting techniques, and rigorous quality control procedures to minimize uncertainty.
As we head into January, I want to emphasize that conditions are trending towards a colder pattern for the South. This means snowfall could become a possibility in the future, but it’s too early to confirm based solely on this late December model.
Source: www.forbes.com
