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Odds of Canada’s PM, Justin Trudeau Resigning Rise on Polymarket, Kalshi
Rumors have been circulating on social media platform X that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could announce his resignation as early as today. This speculation has led to a significant increase in the odds of him stepping down before April on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
According to the latest data available on Polymarket, the probability of Trudeau resigning before April under the bet “Justin Trudeau out as leader of Liberals before April?” has risen to 98%, with a market volume of $46,084. This surge in odds is likely driven by speculation and rumors surrounding the Prime Minister’s potential resignation.
Similarly, Kalshi’s bet “Will Trudeau resign as leader of the Liberals before April?” now shows a 97% likelihood of a “yes,” with a total series volume of $18,806. This sharp increase in betting activity suggests that traders are increasingly convinced that Trudeau will step down from his position as Prime Minister.
Recent media reports suggest that Trudeau is facing mounting pressure from a caucus revolt and dismal public opinion polls that could lead to a potential Liberal defeat at the hands of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. Sources indicate that the Prime Minister may clarify his plans before an upcoming national caucus meeting on Wednesday, which has added fuel to the resignation rumors.
It’s worth noting that Justin Trudeau’s Twitter account tells a different story, as he recently posted about “a big win from 2024,” highlighting that nearly a million Canadian families benefited from reduced child care fees thanks to his National Child Care Program. He also shared plans for similar cost-cutting measures in 2025.
The odds of Trudeau resigning before April have risen sharply on Polymarket and Kalshi, with the probability now standing at 98% and 97%, respectively. This dramatic increase in betting activity is likely driven by speculation and rumors surrounding the Prime Minister’s potential resignation.
Source: www.cryptonewsz.com
