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Title: Starlink’s Numbers Could Bring SpaceX’s Valuation Crashing Down
The space industry has been abuzz with excitement over SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet project, but the reality may be far from the hype. Despite its promise to revolutionize global connectivity and create a new market of billions, Starlink’s numbers may not justify its unprecedented valuation.
In fact, data suggests that there is no near-term demand for such a large constellation of low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. Amazon’s Kuiper system, which promises even more ambitious goals, has yet to launch any operational satellites and faces significant regulatory hurdles. Other competitors like Eutelsat, SES, and Viasat are already in talks with governments and may disrupt the market before Starlink can establish itself.
In addition, the cost of launching these satellites into orbit is a major concern. SpaceX’s Starship rocket, designed to launch these massive constellations, has had a rocky history and there are no guarantees that it will achieve its ambitious goals. Even if successful, the economics may not add up.
The CEO of SpaceX, Gwynne Shotwell, believes that Starship will take the company’s valuation higher still, citing the potential for space tourism and temporary space stations. However, these ideas remain purely speculative and are far from being viable in the near-term.
In reality, there is no evidence to support claims that Starlink will become a trillion-dollar market anytime soon. The satellite internet industry has not seen any significant growth in recent years, and there is no indication that it will suddenly change course.
Ultimately, investors have been betting on Elon Musk’s vision without considering the harsh realities of the market. SpaceX’s valuation may be in for a rude awakening if these numbers don’t materialize.
References:
Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2023-02-14/things-are-bad-at-tesla-theyre-about-to-get-much-worse/?sh=6c5d74e56f76
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeremybogaisky/2025/04/09/spacex-starlink-elon-musk/
