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NASA Upgrades, Then Lowers Odds Of Asteroid Hitting Earth — Here’s Why
In a sudden and unexpected twist, NASA has upgraded then lowered the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking our planet. The sudden shift in probability comes as astronomers have been working tirelessly to refine the orbit of this potentially hazardous space rock.
Initially, the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at NASA updated the impact probability of 2024 YR4 to a staggering 3.1%, making it one of the highest ever recorded for an object of its size. However, just hours later, astronomers were able to gather more data and subsequently revised the odds to a still-not-zero but significantly lower 1.5%.
The sudden change in probability is attributed to the recent full moon’s interference with observations, which resulted in a gap in tracking data. The absence of moonlight has allowed scientists to resume their monitoring efforts, yielding new insights that have dramatically reduced the chances of impact.
“We expect the uncertainty to shrink as we get more and more observational data over an extended period,” said Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “One analogy is hurricane tracking, where at first, the path of a storm has great uncertainty but becomes very well-defined the longer it’s tracked.”
Binzel also emphasized that this fluctuation in probability is merely a reflection of the scientific measurement method and orbit calculation methods, adding that astronomers do not wish to keep any secrets and are committed to transparency throughout the process.
While the revised odds may be reassuring for some, 2024 YR4 still maintains a Torino Impact Hazard Scale rating of 3, indicating it poses a close encounter meriting attention from astronomers. However, Binzel notes that this categorization does not preclude the possibility of re-assignment to Level 0 if new data becomes available.
In light of these developments, experts stress that it is crucial for tracking efforts to continue uninterrupted, as more information will ultimately dispel uncertainty and provide a definitive answer regarding the asteroid’s trajectory.
Source: http://www.forbes.com
